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BlueWhaleMoon
我是老鳥
13276 Posts |
 Posted - 04/04/2025 : 21:11:36
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Davidboy大好久以前，質疑CSIS2022兵推中，把JASSM-ER設定成可以對艦攻擊，實際上是一種不存在的超級LRASM。
(因為JASSM-ER射程比可以對艦的LRASM更長)
因此CSIS不可信。
JASSM-ER是否可以對艦攻擊，的確是在這個兵推中非常重要的影響因素。CSIS在報告中有特別強調
Page 37 (43/165)
For example, in this project it became clear that the effectiveness of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) against moving ships was a critical factor in the outcome of the game after playing several iterations. A close review of the literature showed that this effectiveness was unclear. The project team therefore decided that the effectiveness of the JASSM was an important variable to test.
JASSM-ER是否可以對艦攻擊影響很大，但是公開資料的結論是不確定的。
因此CSIS在基礎兵推中設定JASSM-ER可以對艦攻擊。
(這是Davidboy大合理質疑的點)
但是接下來又進行了所謂的悲觀想定兵推，設定JASSM-ER不可以對艦攻擊。
(這是Davidboy大似乎沒有注意到的點)
P79
Excursion: No Maritime Strike JASSM.
There is a high degree of uncertainty about whether the JASSM-ER will have anti-ship capability by 2026. Because the United States will have many JASSM-ERs, and the ability of the Chinese amphibious ships to survive is central to the success of an invasion, this assumption would make a large difference in the game outcome. Hence, this excursion case assumes that the JASSM-ER does not have anti-ship capability.
悲觀想定不利條件(之一)，JASSM-ER無法對艦攻擊。
P89
Design: All 18 pessimistic iterations included the assumption that the JASSM-ER missile possesses no capability against ships at sea. As noted in the discussion of the base scenario, the JASSM had a decisive impact on outcomes, but its actual anti-ship capabilities are not well established. The first four pessimistic iterations used only the “No maritime strike JASSM” excursion case. The remaining 14 iterations included at least three additional pessimistic excursion case assumptions.
18次悲觀想定兵推中，都會加上”JASSM無法攻擊海上移動目標”的限制。其中4次只有” JASSM無法攻擊海上移動目標”的限制，其他14次還加上其他的不利條件。
Operational Outcomes: The results of the pessimistic scenarios were significantly better for China than the base scenarios. Nevertheless, none resulted in a clear Chinese success (i.e., a Chinese occupation of Taipei or even more than a quarter of the island) Four of the 18 iterations resulted in a clear and decisive Chinese defeat, and the remainder had not produced decisive results at end of play, some 14 to 35 days into the campaign. Of those 14 cases of stalemate, 3 were judged to end “stalemate, trending toward China,” 7 were judged to end “stalemate, trending against China,” and 4 were “stalemate, indeterminate.
所有的18次悲觀想定，PLA都沒有兵推時間中，達到勝利條件(佔領台北或者佔領1/4的台灣)
4次PLA戰敗
3次PLA有利的僵局
7次PLA不利的僵局
4次無法判定誰有利的僵局
P90
The more pessimistic assumptions used in a scenario, the worse the outcome for the United States. The three iterations run with only one pessimistic assumption (the “no maritime strike JASSM” excursion case) produced one decisive Chinese defeat and two that were trending against China. Those scenarios with additional pessimistic assumptions produced a wider range of results—with an average result significantly worse for the United States and its partners than the three more moderately pessimistic scenarios
在其中的3次兵推，只加上JASSM無法攻擊海上移動目標。結果是1次PLA失敗，2次PLA不利的僵局。
(PS 我不知道為甚麼上面說是4次，這邊是3次。)
P91
Table 6
18次悲觀想定兵推(都會加上”JASSM無法攻擊海上移動目標”的限制)，PLA平均損失113艘艦隻。(基礎想定是138)
P92
Critical Variables: Some variables had greater impacts than others. As mentioned above, the “no maritime strike JASSM” excursion case was especially difficult for the United States. In all scenarios, the clearest, fastest, and most direct way to defeat the invasion is to attack the amphibious fleet off Taiwan using standoff munitions. Without JASSM-ER’s anti-ship capability, the ability of the United States to pursue this strategy is limited by a shortage of appropriate missiles. However, even without the ability to attack ships at sea, the JASSM-ER can contribute to defeating invasion. In the pessimistic scenarios, U.S. teams used the JASSM-ER to attack Chinese air bases and ports. The former can attrite Chinese combat aircraft and disrupt Chinese air support for operations on Taiwan, while the latter can disrupt the loading of amphibious ships or destroy them at the pier.
在JASSM無法攻擊海上移動目標的設定下，JASSM-ER會被用來攻擊PLA的機場與港口。
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事實上，davidboy大對於JASSM-ER的質疑，我一直覺得反而展現了CSIS兵推的專業性與價值，那就是CSIS的兵推展現了台海戰爭的目前可能的樣態與戰力大致估算，以及更重要的是，如何估算的邏輯。
也就是說davidboy大的質疑，是可以在CSIS的架構下討論的，而不是雙方在那邊互相空對空重複論點。
davidboy大的質疑，無損我認為CSIS這份報告的重要性
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唯一支持蔡總統國防預算占GDP3%政策 |
Edited by - BlueWhaleMoon on 04/04/2025 21:23:53 |
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答疑: CSIS 2022兵推中JSSM-ER的角色
