Page 37 (43/165) For example, in this project it became clear that the effectiveness of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) against moving ships was a critical factor in the outcome of the game after playing several iterations. A close review of the literature showed that this effectiveness was unclear. The project team therefore decided that the effectiveness of the JASSM was an important variable to test.
P79 Excursion: No Maritime Strike JASSM. There is a high degree of uncertainty about whether the JASSM-ER will have anti-ship capability by 2026. Because the United States will have many JASSM-ERs, and the ability of the Chinese amphibious ships to survive is central to the success of an invasion, this assumption would make a large difference in the game outcome. Hence, this excursion case assumes that the JASSM-ER does not have anti-ship capability.
悲觀想定不利條件(之一)，JASSM-ER無法對艦攻擊。
P89 Design: All 18 pessimistic iterations included the assumption that the JASSM-ER missile possesses no capability against ships at sea. As noted in the discussion of the base scenario, the JASSM had a decisive impact on outcomes, but its actual anti-ship capabilities are not well established. The first four pessimistic iterations used only the “No maritime strike JASSM” excursion case. The remaining 14 iterations included at least three additional pessimistic excursion case assumptions.
Operational Outcomes: The results of the pessimistic scenarios were significantly better for China than the base scenarios. Nevertheless, none resulted in a clear Chinese success (i.e., a Chinese occupation of Taipei or even more than a quarter of the island) Four of the 18 iterations resulted in a clear and decisive Chinese defeat, and the remainder had not produced decisive results at end of play, some 14 to 35 days into the campaign. Of those 14 cases of stalemate, 3 were judged to end “stalemate, trending toward China,” 7 were judged to end “stalemate, trending against China,” and 4 were “stalemate, indeterminate.
P90 The more pessimistic assumptions used in a scenario, the worse the outcome for the United States. The three iterations run with only one pessimistic assumption (the “no maritime strike JASSM” excursion case) produced one decisive Chinese defeat and two that were trending against China. Those scenarios with additional pessimistic assumptions produced a wider range of results—with an average result significantly worse for the United States and its partners than the three more moderately pessimistic scenarios
P92 Critical Variables: Some variables had greater impacts than others. As mentioned above, the “no maritime strike JASSM” excursion case was especially difficult for the United States. In all scenarios, the clearest, fastest, and most direct way to defeat the invasion is to attack the amphibious fleet off Taiwan using standoff munitions. Without JASSM-ER’s anti-ship capability, the ability of the United States to pursue this strategy is limited by a shortage of appropriate missiles. However, even without the ability to attack ships at sea, the JASSM-ER can contribute to defeating invasion. In the pessimistic scenarios, U.S. teams used the JASSM-ER to attack Chinese air bases and ports. The former can attrite Chinese combat aircraft and disrupt Chinese air support for operations on Taiwan, while the latter can disrupt the loading of amphibious ships or destroy them at the pier.
